The Coming Storm – Why Water Security is Key to Global Stability?

Accelerating ecological degradation is becoming a critical multiplier of global conflict. Without immediate action, water scarcity, food insecurity, and climate change threaten to ignite new conflicts, particularly in already fragile regions.  

This year’s Ecological Threat Report from the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) reveals a challenging reality: 1.3 billion people currently live in countries facing severe ecological threats, a number projected to surge to 2 billion by 2050. Yet amid these sobering statistics lies an often-overlooked solution: water management.  

The relationship between ecological degradation and conflict is not merely theoretical. In Africa’s Sahel region, which accounts for just 6.8% of the continent’s population but 16% of its conflict deaths, we see this dynamic play out daily. However, IEP’s research reveals that water scarcity – often blamed for such conflicts – is less about resource availability and more about governance and infrastructure. 

Take the contrasting examples of the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. The UAE, despite limited natural water resources, effectively manages water security through robust governance and infrastructure. Meanwhile, Yemen, with more abundant water resources, faces severe water risks due to weak institutions and poor infrastructure. This pattern repeats across regions where ecological threats intersect with conflict. 

The good news? Not only do solutions exist, but in Africa’s case, the resources are already there. Unlike some other parts of the world, much of Africa has vast, untapped water resources. What’s lacking isn’t water – it’s the ability to capture it and use it effectively for agriculture. 

The disconnect is stark. Across the world, most of the water usage goes to agriculture, but sub-Saharan Africa uses only 2% of its renewable water resources for farming, compared to a global average of 6.7%. The region has the lowest irrigation rates in the world, with just 1.8% of cultivated lands being irrigated – less than one-tenth of the global rate of 19%. In real terms, out of 243 million hectares under cultivation, less than 4 million are irrigated. 

Our analysis shows that an annual investment of $15 billion in water capture and agricultural enhancement initiatives over 25 years could increase food production in sub-Saharan Africa by more than 50%. To put this in perspective, that’s roughly 1% of all foreign direct investment in 2023. Small-scale water capture projects, such as sand dams, are already proving transformative – a $50,000 investment can generate substantial returns in agricultural productivity. 

But it starts with improved water capture. 

The impact of such investments extends far beyond agriculture, resulting in lower malnutrition and acting as a stimulus for local businesses. Sub-Saharan Africa alone has 34.2 million hectares of land with untapped irrigation potential – all of which could be irrigated using less than 6% of the region’s renewable water resources. 

However, time is not on our side. Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing tensions in areas with weak institutions and low resilience. Twenty-seven ecological “hotspots” have been identified – countries combining severe ecological threats with low societal resilience – and are particularly vulnerable to shocks. 

The path forward requires a fundamental shift in how we approach both ecological threats and conflict prevention. Traditional security interventions often treat symptoms rather than causes. Research shows that strengthening local governance and community-based resource management has proven more effective at preventing conflict than external security interventions. 

The implications of inaction extend far beyond regional boundaries. Water stress in glacier-fed ecosystems of South Asia and South America, rising sea levels affecting fertile agricultural regions in Southeast Asia, and extreme weather events in China and India, will make it increasingly difficult to feed the 2.8 billion people who live there. Over 91 million people depend on the lower Mekong River Basin and Nile Delta for their livelihoods, with upstream damming already severely affecting water flows. 

These ecological pressures ripple through our interconnected world. Food shortages in one region negatively impact global prices. As land degradation intensifies and populations increase, we’ll see significant shifts in global migration patterns, reshaping demographics and economies in both origin and destination countries. 

The roadmap to address these challenges is clear. First, we must prioritise investment in local water capture and management systems, particularly in ecological hotspots. Second, we need to strengthen local governance structures and use the water for effective agricultural production. This will help to prevent conflict. Finally, international cooperation must shift from reactive crisis response to proactive resilience building. 

The cost of investment today pales in comparison to the price of future conflict and displacement. The question isn’t whether we can afford to act – it’s whether we can afford not to.