The Conflict in Egypt: Analysis Using the Global Peace Index

Conflict in Egypt: Data from the Global Peace Index

After the Arab Spring uprising, there are some signs of improvements in peace for Egypt. In fact, Egypt recorded its first year of improvement since 2015, with an overall score change of 0.136, rising seven places.

All three domain scores improved, most notably in the Ongoing Conflict domain, which also improved for the first time since 2015.

However, the country as a whole remains significantly less peaceful than it was prior to the events of the Arab Spring in 2011.

Global Peace Index ranking: 136 out of 163 countries.
Change in rank: up seven places.

Source: The 2019 Global Peace Index

Improvement in Ongoing Conflict in Egypt

The improvement in the Ongoing Conflict domain was due to reductions in the intensity of internal conflict and deaths from internal conflict. Both improvements were driven by increased security efforts from 2017 to 2018.

In late 2017, President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi replaced the military chief of staff, and in February 2018, adopted a massive security campaign.

The operation involved 60,000 troops and 52,000 police officers, and is the most comprehensive effort to date to deal with the threat from jihadis in the remote areas of Egypt.

Safety and Security is the only domain to have shown consistent improvements in peace over the last five years, with a 17% improvement since 2014. Political stability improved over the past year.

President, el-Sisi and political terror

The incumbent president, el-Sisi, won a second four-year term in May of 2018 in a tightly controlled electoral process. El-Sisi retains strong command of internal security matters and is unlikely to be removed from power in a similar fashion to his predecessors.

However, due to el-Sisi’s consolidation of power and control over opposition, political terror increased from a score of four to 4.5 in 2019. Egypt still ranks in the bottom quadrant of the 2019 Global Peace Index, at 136.