Emerging as a pressing ecological challenge, water risk and scarcity are exacerbated by climate change, culminating in increased tensions and the potential for violent conflict. The risk is rising for water-related conflicts in regions in which rivers flow through multiple nations with competing interests and growing populations.
The Ecological Threat Report 2024 (ETR) outlines the extent of water scarcity and insecurity as an ecological threat, contributing to the displacement of 32.6 million people across 151 countries in 2023 alone. As populations continue to increase, with projected growth in megacities by 2025, water extraction patterns in specific regions are a matter of significant contention. The ETR, produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), outlines that nations in the Global South are particularly affected, with the largest issue being the effective capturing and distribution of water resources, especially during dry weather seasons. The report highlights the contributing impact of weak governance and management of resources.
Tensions surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) provide an example of the complexities surrounding the management of transboundary water resources in the wake of mounting climate threats. As the second-largest domestic reservoir, the dam requires a significant amount of water to remain full, with Ethiopia electing to use the Nile River as its primary source. This has become a focal point of conflict between Egypt and the northeastern African region as Egypt relies on the Nile or a water source for more than 98% of its water.
Recent diplomatic approaches have seen Cairo petitioning the United Nations Security Council to intervene and protest Ethiopia’s “aggressive” approach, claiming current policies of water sourcing pose a threat to national security, and therefore regional peace. However, Ethiopia is determined to continue filling GERD with water from the Nile, assuring that significant hydropower will be generated by allowing the water to flow through the dam’s turbines and on to Egypt, enabling the production of greener energy and more cost-efficient use of energy.
The escalating conflict between Iran and Afghanistan over the Helmand River and Hamun Lake system demonstrates the exacerbation of regional tensions through increased challenges posed by climate change. The ETR 2024 outlines that water risk, implicating water scarcity, increasing floods, water pollution, and groundwater decline, are environmental threats that pose significant socio-economic global impacts. This is exemplified by the mounting tensions between Iran and Afghanistan.
The ETR reports that recent conflicts surrounding the transboundary water sources have been intensified by climate-changed induced ecological challenges, including forced migration and displacement of populations, as well as poor governance and resource management. In 2023 these growing tensions amounted to an upsurge in violence on the border between Iran and Afghanistan which resulted in the death of one Taliban soldier and two Iranian guards. To date, diplomatic measures have been unable to resolve ongoing and escalating tensions around water distribution disputes.
The ETR 2024 predicts an increase in tension and conflict as a result of rising climate change induced ecological threats. Identifying the regions at risk in the Global South are characterised by:
These factors are especially prevalent in the Middle East, Central Asia, Northern Africa, and Southern Asia. As climate change intensifies and populations grow, water security challenges will likely become more acute. However, several factors may help mitigate potential conflicts:
The success of these measures will largely depend on nations’ willingness to engage in meaningful dialogue and compromise, particularly in regions where water resources are already stressed. As demonstrated by the ongoing situations in the Nile Basin and along the Helmand River, the path to sustainable water management requires both technical solutions and robust diplomatic frameworks.
The evidence suggests that while local conflicts over water may be inevitable, international cooperation remains crucial for preventing larger-scale confrontations and escalations.
The Ecological Threat Report 2024 covers 207 countries and highlights a growing global crisis as ecological threats, climate change, poor governance,...
IEP Founder & Executive Chairman, Steve Killelea, on why effective water management is critical to prevent conflict and enhance resilience in...
Analysing ecological threats, resilience & peace.
Analysing ecological threats, resilience & peace.
