Afghanistan’s uncertain path towards a fragile peace

The Global Peace Index (GPI), produced annually by the Institute for Economics & Peace, has ranked Afghanistan as among the three least peaceful nations in the world for a decade, occupying the lowest position for four consecutive years. Its continued deterioration in peacefulness underscores the multidimensional crises that grip the nation and its people. While major conflicts have decreased, the current state of relative stability masks significant underlying challenges that includes social, economic and humanitarian struggles.

Security and Social Challenges Under Taliban Rule

The Taliban’s takeover in 2021 ended years of insurgency and virtually cessated civil armed conflict. However, under the Taliban government emerged an impenetrable climate of fear, where violence and terrorism were wielded as mechanisms of state repression and control. According to the indicators and metrics employed in the GPI, the scope of control of the Taliban government has a vice-like grip over rural areas, where public punishments, including floggings and executions, have become increasingly common. Although in urban areas, there has been a decrease in kidnappings and violent crime, the overall state of human security has significantly deteriorated. The Afghanistan: Conflict and Crisis brief by IEP indicates worsening living conditions as many Afghans are denied basic rights, relief from threats of bombings and shoots has cultivated an insidious state of poverty and repression.

The brief also recongises the stark regression on women’s rights under Taliban rule. The regime has systematically dismantled two decades of progress, banning girls from secondary and higher education, imposing strict dress codes, severely limiting women’s ability to work and restricting their freedom of movement through public spaces. Under this regime, women suffer disproportionate victimisation of a deeply flawed system, where unqualified clerics impose harsh interpretations of Sharia without proper legal processes. Marking a deterioration to the rule of law, female judges, lawyers and court clerks are being dismissed based on their gender, leaving many Afghani women without recourse to justice. 

Economic Stagnation and Humanitarian Crisis 

Afghanistan’s economy remains on life support after the initial shock of the Taliban takeover, catalysing a steep economic decline as Afghanistan’s GDP dropped by more than 25% as foreign assets were frozen, and international aid, which had funded 75% of government expenditures, was abruptly cut off. The economic free fall has since subsided and they operate at a subsistence level, and the brief on Afghanistan by IEP indicates the country is largely sustained by humanitarian aid, with over two-thirds of the population relying on this assistance for survival.

International sanctions and asset freezes continue to strangle the economy, while Taliban policies that limit humanitarian responses and exclude women from the workforce further hinder any chance at recovery. The declining humanitarian situation is exacerbated by this financial instability, as the GPI measures levels of hunger, unemployment and poverty are steadily increasing. Attempts to revive trade with neighbouring countries have been met with limited success, with these efforts far from the robust economic activity needed to lift millions out of poverty.  

International Relations and Isolation 

International relations with Afghanistan under Taliban rule are characterised by global isolation. No foreign state has officially recognised the Taliban government, largely due to its refusal to reverse its position on women’s rights and its inability to form an inclusive government. Western nations have largely disengaged from the regime, exempting the provision of humanitarian assistance. However, regional powers, including Pakistan, Iran, and China, have adopted a more pragmatic approach, engaging with the Taliban on security and economic issues, particularly around border trade and water sharing.

Selective international engagement continues around counter-terrorism, as global powers fear that Afghanistan could become a breeding ground for extremist groups. While the Taliban has distanced itself from groups like al-Qaeda and Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K), the risk of Afghanistan becoming a hub for terrorism remains a concern. This fear has prompted limited security cooperation between the Taliban and certain countries, but deep mistrust lingers, preventing broader diplomatic or economic engagement.

The Path Forward 

Despite the relative absence of open conflict, Afghanistan’s future remains deeply uncertain. As research by IEP indicates, peace goes beyond the absence of war and encompasses political stability, rule of law, and social cohesion. Afghanistan remains far from achieving sustainable, Positive Peace. The regime’s tight control, exclusionary policies, and reliance on fear and repression create an environment where long-standing ethnic, political, and economic divisions are unlikely to be resolved through peaceful means.

The international community faces difficult choices in its approach to Afghanistan. Engagement risks legitimising a repressive regime, while continued isolation could exacerbate humanitarian suffering. Regional actors may continue to play a crucial role in shaping Afghanistan’s future, even though the motivations of some may be driven more by security concerns than a commitment to human rights or peace.

While Afghanistan may have moved away from large-scale conflict, its path to a peaceful and stable society remains fraught. Without significant changes in governance, particularly concerning human rights, Afghanistan’s peace will remain tenuous, and its people will continue to face severe hardships.