Trend of political disruption kickstarts again in 2025

The last year saw far-right gains and incumbent losses worldwide. Pandemic disruptions, high inflation stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and mass displacement from conflicts in the Middle East and Africa contributed to a growing sense of global instability. These factors have fuelled political dissatisfaction and created fertile ground for the rise of populist and far-right movements, as well as the decline of traditional centrist parties. 

As 2025 begins, there is no sign of this trend abating. In Austria, President Alexander Van der Bellen, a former Greens leader, has tasked Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPO), with forming a coalition government after centrist parties failed to assemble one. This development marks a significant shift in Austria’s political landscape, as Kickl’s FPO capitalized on widespread frustration with the previous coalition’s inability to address pressing issues such as inflation and immigration. The rise of the FPO not only underscores a local shift but also highlights the broader realignment occurring across Europe. 

The struggles of coalition governments have opened the door for far-right parties to gain prominence in several countries. Austria’s situation mirrors challenges faced by other European nations, such as Germany. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition—comprising the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP)—has been plagued by infighting and policy disagreements. Unable to overcome their differences, the government has lost public confidence, forcing Germany to hold early elections next month. Polls suggest that the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are poised to lead the next government. However, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to make significant gains, maintaining its position as the country’s second-largest opposition party. The AfD’s rise reflects a broader disillusionment with mainstream political parties and a growing appetite for nationalist and anti-immigration policies. 

The trend of political disruption is not confined to Europe. In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently announced his intention to step down in the coming months after nine years in office. Trudeau’s decision follows mounting pressure over his government’s declining popularity and poor performance in pre-election polling. The Liberal Party, long a dominant force in Canadian politics, is now on track to lose power to the Conservative Party.  

In Latin America, the pattern of political upheaval continues as well. Countries like Argentina and Peru have seen protests over economic inequality and corruption, leading to a loss of faith in established political parties. In Argentina, the election of a far-right libertarian president has signalled a departure from decades of centrist or left-leaning governance. Similarly, Peru has faced instability, with its government grappling with widespread protests and political fragmentation. These developments echo the broader global trend of electorates turning to unconventional or extreme political alternatives in response to unmet expectations. 

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, too, remains a hotspot for political disruption. Rising energy prices and food insecurity has triggered unrest in countries like Tunisia and Lebanon. In Tunisia, the government’s increasingly authoritarian measures have sparked protests and international criticism, while Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis, compounded by the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, has left its political system in disarray.  

Asia is not immune to the global wave of political disruption either. In India, the world’s largest democracy, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is governing for the first time without a majority. Unlike its two previous terms, Modi’s Hindu nationalists relies on its partners from the National Democratic Alliance and friendly parties to get laws passed in the lower house.  

In Africa, several nations are grappling with political instability fuelled by economic hardships and security challenges. In Ghana, former president John Dramani Mahama staged a political comeback in late 2024 by winning the West African nation’s presidential election against Mahamudu Bawumia from the ruling New Patriotic Party. It was the latest blow to a ruling party in a region where voters have been hit by economic hardship, high inflation and local currency depreciation. And there have also been issues with disputed election results, usually involving an incumbent government holding onto power. In Mozambique, the opposition has been protesting against the disputed presidential election in October 2024 of ruling Frelimo party candidate Daniel Chapo. 

In 2024, voters worldwide expressed dissatisfaction through the ballot box, turning away from traditional parties and incumbents in favour of alternatives that often promised radical change. This shift reflects a growing sense of disillusionment with the ability of established political systems to address current challenges, from economic inequality and climate change to migration and geopolitical instability. 

In 2025, incumbent governments will need to navigate an increasingly polarised and fragmented political landscape, finding ways to address the underlying grievances driving voter discontent. For traditional parties, this may require a re-evaluation of policy priorities. For emerging movements, the challenge will be to translate popular support into effective governance that delivers on the promises of change.