According to the latest Global Peace Index (GPI), 97 countries saw their peace metrics deteriorate last year, whilst only 65 improved – the highest number of deteriorations recorded in a single year. The world is witnessing not just isolated conflicts, but a transition in the global order, marked by the emergence of multiple new centres of power and influence.
Current conflicts illustrate this change. The war in Ukraine has claimed over 83,000 lives in the past year alone, while more than a reported 40,000 have died in Gaza. These aren’t just regional disputes, but indicators of a broader power shift reshaping international relations.
This shift is evident in changing military capabilities and defence spending. The GPI revealed that global military capability has increased by 10% since 2014, despite a reduction in armed forces personnel. The United States maintains military capabilities approximately three times greater than China, its nearest rival, but this gap is narrowing. China has recorded the most significant increase in military capability of any global superpower since 2014, whilst traditional powers like France and Russia have seen slight contractions.
The nature of warfare itself is evolving. The GPI also highlights a dramatic rise in asymmetric warfare capabilities, particularly in drone technology. Between 2018 and 2023, the number of states using drones increased from 16 to 40, whilst non-state groups conducting drone attacks surged from 6 to 91. This democratisation of military technology has profound implications for traditional power structures.
The economic cost of global conflict reveals the scale of this transformation. The global economic impact of violence reached $19.1 trillion in 2023, equivalent to 13.5% of global GDP. This cost isn’t evenly distributed – in the ten countries most affected by violence, the economic burden averaged 37.4% of GDP, compared to just 2.9% in the ten most peaceful nations.
Regional dynamics also reflect this shifting landscape. The Asia-Pacific region remains the second most peaceful globally, despite tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Europe, whilst still the most peaceful region, saw its largest year-on-year increase in military expenditure since the GPI began. North America recorded the largest regional deterioration in peacefulness, with both Canada and the US seeing significant declines, primarily driven by increases in violent crime and fear of violence.
The Middle East and North Africa continue to be the least peaceful region, home to four of the ten least peaceful countries globally. The conflict in Gaza has caused regional reverberations, also affecting Syria, Iran, Lebanon and Yemen, with the economic consequences mounting and risks of broader warfare increasing.
This changing landscape is perhaps most visible in the evolution of global alliances. The BRICS group – originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – has expanded to include Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt, with more nations expressing interest. This expansion represents more than economic cooperation; it signals a move towards a multipolar world order.
The data shows conflicts are becoming more complex and internationalised. In 2022, there were 92 countries involved in conflicts outside their borders, the highest number since the GPI’s inception. The resolution of these conflicts has become increasingly challenging – the percentage of conflicts ending in decisive victory has fallen from 49% in the 1970s to less than 9% in the 2010s.
Traditional powers face new challenges in managing multiple crises simultaneously. The focus on conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza has meant other significant conflicts, such as those in Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Sudan, receive comparatively little international attention or resources.
The economic implications of this new order are substantial. Syria’s economy contracted by 85% after the start of its civil war in 2011, whilst Ukraine’s economy shrank by 29% in the year immediately following the Russian invasion. These examples illustrate how modern conflicts can rapidly devastate national economies and disrupt global supply chains.
Looking ahead, the data suggests several concerning trends. The number of active conflicts is now higher than at any point since World War II, with 56 ongoing state-based conflicts in 2022. The combination of increasing militarisation, rising geopolitical competition, and the proliferation of advanced military technology creates significant risks for future stability.
The data points to a shift in how power is operating globally. Military capability is no longer just about troop numbers and traditional arsenals – it’s increasingly about technological sophistication, economic leverage, and the ability to form flexible strategic alliances.
As the GPI data shows, countries are adapting to this reality through increased military spending and technological advancement, even as their armed forces shrink in size. The rise of drone warfare, the expansion of BRICS, and the internationalisation of previously local conflicts all suggest this redistribution of global power and military capability will continue to reshape international relations in the years ahead.
There are currently 56 conflicts, the most since World War II. They have become more international with 92 countries involved in conflicts outside...
IEP has developed a more robust way of measuring the military capacity of countries.
Identifying and measuring the factors that drive peace
Exploring military capacity and capability
