2024: The year incumbent governments lost power

Rising cost of living and immigration pressures saw the demise of many governments in 2024, with Iceland the latest, as the centre-left Social Democratic Alliance defeated the ruling Independence Party amid a high voter turnout of 80%. 

It was a challenging year for incumbent governments worldwide, with many losing power in key elections, either through outright defeat or a reduced electoral support diminishing of their ruling mandate. Beyond changes in political leadership, these elections represent a complex interplay of economic pressures, demographic shifts, and evolving citizen expectations. 

Some examples: 

• United States: Kamala Harris, who became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden’s withdrawal, lost to Donald Trump, marking his return to office after a term out. While the primary vote changed by just one per cent from the 2020 election, Trump’s Republicans won the votes where it mattered most in key geographies, including the seven swing states, to record a comprehensive victory. The US election highlighted deep national divisions, including continued political polarisation, ongoing challenges to institutional norms, plus ongoing economic and social tensions.
• United Kingdom: The ruling Conservative Party, in power for over a decade, suffered a significant defeat. Labour, led by Keir Starmer, won with promises of change and policies focusing on public services and economic reforms.
• South Africa: The African National Congress (ANC), dominant since the end of apartheid, lost its parliamentary majority for the first time. A coalition of opposition parties has taken charge, reflecting voter frustration with corruption and poor governance.
• Japan: The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed for much of the post-war period, lost its majority in elections. This result stems from public dissatisfaction with economic stagnation and demographic challenges.
• France: President Emmanuel Macron’s party faced a backlash after calling for snap parliamentary elections. A coalition of left-wing and centrist parties gained ground, capitalising on discontent over controversial reforms.
• India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party was re-elected for a third term, but lost his parliamentary majority for the first time in a decade.
• Senegal: President Macky Sall’s alliance suffered a major defeat, with opposition leader Bassirou Diomaye Faye winning the presidential election. This marked a significant generational and ideological shift, reflecting growing youth dissatisfaction with established political structures.
• Bangladesh: The Awami League’s grip on power weakened significantly, with opposition parties gaining substantial ground amid concerns about democratic processes and economic management.

There were some notable exceptions, such as Mexico and Ireland. Both countries have also experienced positive economic performance relative to other countries. Claudia Sheinbaum won election in Mexico, with the support of her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, while in Ireland, the centre-right Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have managed to avoid the incumbents’ curse, being re-elected with just a 0.4% fall in first preference votes to 42.7%. 

Exceptions like Mexico and Ireland demonstrate the nuanced nature of electoral dynamics. These countries’ relative success can be attributed to: 

• Positive economic performance 
• Effective leadership transition strategies 
• Responsive policy-making 
• Maintaining voter confidence through transparent governance 

However the overall trend is for change, particularly in Western democracies, where since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Harvard University records that 75% of incumbent governments have been removed from office. The widespread displacement of ruling governments can be attributed to several interconnected factors: 

Economic Instability and Cost of Living

The global economic environment has been marked by persistent inflationary pressures and uneven recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Many countries have experienced: 

• Sustained high inflation rates eroding purchasing power 
• Stagnant wages failing to keep pace with living expenses 
• Increasing wealth inequality 
• Challenges in housing affordability and job market stability 

These economic strains have directly translated into voter dissatisfaction, with citizens demanding concrete solutions from their political leadership. 

Demographic and Generational Shifts

Younger voters are increasingly playing a decisive role in electoral outcomes: 

• Higher political engagement among millennials and Gen Z 
• Greater emphasis on climate action, social justice, and economic reform 
• Reduced loyalty to traditional political establishments 
• More diverse and globally connected political perspectives 

Governance and Institutional Trust

The elections of 2024 reflect a critical reassessment of governmental effectiveness: 

• Heightened scrutiny of pandemic response and management 
• Increased transparency expectations 
• Growing intolerance for perceived corruption or administrative inefficiency 
• Demand for more responsive and adaptable governance models 

With voters in many countries disenchanted with traditional major parties, and votes being splintered as a result, one other emerging trend is the rise of coalition governments, which themselves face the challenge of merging the demands of often uneasy coalition partners. While the US election in November dominated the headlines, over in Europe there was the sudden collapse of the coalition government in German. The three-party ruling government was made up of the Social Democratic Party and the Greens on the left side of the political spectrum, and the fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party on the centre right. But it struggled to govern cohesively, forcing Chancellor Olaf Scholz to announce an early snap election in February 2025. If the 2024 trend continues, Sholz’s Social Democratic Party could be the first incumbent government to lose office in 2025.

Further reading:

• Trend of political disruption kickstarts again in 2025